Former U.S. envoy sees little chance midterms will shift Canada tariff policy

With the Nov. 3 U.S. midterm election approaching, former U.S. ambassador to Canada David Cohen said he considers it “extraordinarily unlikely” that the result will lead to a meaningful change in U.S. tariff or trade policy toward Canada. His assessment rests on the view that the current approach is directed principally by the president and executive branch rather than Congress. [1]

Cohen said even a Democratic takeover of the House would probably produce only a narrow majority and a divided Senate, conditions he does not view as conducive to forceful congressional oversight or legislation that would curb presidential trade powers. He said legislation limiting those powers could pass Congress, but not with the veto-proof support needed to overcome presidential opposition. [1]

The comments point to continued policy uncertainty rather than a new tariff action. Cohen said Canadian businesses and policymakers should not expect a dramatic post-election reversal, arguing that a substantive change would more likely require a future president who does not rely on tariffs as a trade-policy instrument. Eurasia Group president Ian Bremmer similarly told reporters that Washington’s direction is likely to include further industrial policy, subsidies and tariffs, according to the report. [1]

The article also describes political constraints around potential congressional resistance. Cohen said states experiencing significant tariff and counter-tariff effects—including Michigan, Ohio and Maine—are among those more receptive to Canada, while Canadian counter-tariffs can also impose costs on those same states. He added that voters are more aware of tariff-related economic harm, but that the effect remains only one part of broader affordability concerns. [1]

Other Canadian and U.S. observers cited in the report likewise cautioned against treating a changed congressional balance as a reliable route to trade-policy reversal. Senator Andrew Cardozo said Canada’s trade dealings are primarily with the U.S. administration, while former diplomat Maryscott Greenwood said a Democratic-controlled Congress would not necessarily make the administration less aggressive and could face competing priorities if it sought to reclaim trade authority. [1]

For cross-border firms, the immediate implication is that election-based planning should not assume a near-term easing of U.S. tariff exposure. The report provides an attributed outlook, not evidence of a decision to maintain, raise or remove any particular measure; congressional results and any subsequent executive actions remain uncertain. [1]