Business Council of Canada warns USMCA uncertainty could deter investment
Canadian business leaders say unresolved North American trade uncertainty may delay investment decisions despite the U.S. remaining Canada’s central export market.
Business Council of Canada president and CEO Goldy Hyder said persistent uncertainty around North American trade and the future of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement could discourage companies and investors from committing capital. He characterized the risk as a potential “capital chill,” arguing that businesses are less willing to make long-term decisions when the operating environment is unclear. [1]
Hyder stressed that Canada’s effort to widen commercial ties abroad should not be read as a move away from the United States. He described the approach as “U.S. Plus”: pursuing additional customers and investment partners while recognizing that the U.S. remains Canada’s most important trading market. The report said nearly 68% of Canadian exports have gone to the U.S. this year, while about 80% of those shipments have moved duty-free through USMCA exemptions. [1]
The warning comes after Canada and the United States exchanged new trade restrictions in recent weeks following a breakdown in negotiations, according to the report. USMCA remains in force, but the United States declined during its July review to extend the agreement in its current form and has continued talks with Canada and Mexico. Hyder said business wants a timely, trilateral and tariff-exempt review and renewal rather than a fragmented North American framework. [1]
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce echoed the call for greater certainty, with senior vice president for the Americas Neil Herrington saying a resolution is important for businesses and investors and advocating an outcome that removes tariffs and broader restrictions while preserving a trilateral relationship. Global Affairs Canada similarly said the three countries would benefit from restoring more certainty to the continental trade arrangement. [1]
Ottawa is simultaneously seeking to broaden trade and investment links, including with Europe, while aiming to catalyze C$1 trillion in investment over five years in energy, mining, technology and infrastructure. Hyder nevertheless argued that North American integration remains the foundational commercial architecture for Canada, and identified energy, nuclear power, food security and critical minerals as areas where Canada, Mexico and the United States could deepen cooperation. These are business and policy assessments, rather than evidence that investment has already been withdrawn or delayed. [1]
This is a moderate-significance business-response development: a leading Canadian business representative has newly warned that unresolved USMCA and wider North American trade uncertainty could make firms and investors more hesitant to deploy capital. The exposure is broad because the U.S. remains Canada’s primary export market, but the report provides an assessment of risk rather than confirmed investment cancellations, a new tariff action, or a negotiated resolution. [1]