CFIB Survey Finds Nearly Half of Small Traders Facing New Canada-U.S. Tariff Costs
CFIB’s preliminary survey indicates new tariffs are imposing substantial monthly costs and viability risks on Canadian small businesses trading across the border.
A preliminary Canadian Federation of Independent Business survey found that the latest tariff measures are reaching a large share of small firms involved in cross-border trade. Among Canadian small-business exporters selling into the United States, 46% said they were affected by U.S. Section 338 tariffs. On the import side, 49% of firms sourcing from the United States reported being affected by Canadian counter-tariffs. [1]
The burden extends beyond directly trading firms. CFIB reported that 26% of all responding business owners described the new U.S. 50% tariffs as having a major negative effect on their business, while 28% said the same of the Canadian counter-tariffs. Businesses reporting tariff impacts cited median added monthly costs of $65,000, illustrating the potential cash-flow pressure on smaller companies with limited ability to absorb abrupt input or market-access costs. [1]
Financial resilience appears uneven. Eighteen percent of exporters affected by the trade dispute said their businesses would no longer be financially viable if it continued for at least three months; 12% of affected importers gave the same response. The results point to exposure on both sides of the border: exporters face the cost of U.S. duties, while importers can face higher landed costs from Canada’s countermeasures. [1]
Firms are using differing adjustment strategies rather than a single response. CFIB said 42% expected to absorb most new tariff costs, while 41% expected to pass through most of them. Reported operational responses include changing suppliers, cutting purchases, postponing hiring or investment, and pursuing tariff relief. Those choices could limit near-term expansion and transmit some trade-war costs into customer prices, depending on each firm’s pricing power. [1]
The survey was conducted from August 28 to 31 among 1,545 CFIB members that own independent Canadian businesses across regions and sectors. CFIB characterized the findings as preliminary and reported a margin of error of plus or minus 2.49 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, for a probability sample of the same size. Respondents supported measures such as direct grants, lower small-business tax rates and tariff refunds more than loan-based assistance, while also favouring a rapid return to negotiations to restore certainty. [1]
This is a moderate-significance economic-impact update because it quantifies broad small-business exposure to the new U.S. Section 338 tariffs and Canadian counter-tariffs, including a $65,000 median monthly cost among affected firms and stated viability risks. The rating is not higher because the preliminary survey covers businesses across sectors rather than establishing a new, industry-specific change in tariff conditions. [1]