U.S. effective tariff rate settles below 7% as Canada retains USMCA cushion

CaixaBank Research estimates that the average effective U.S. tariff has held slightly below 7% since March 2026, about four percentage points below its post-2025 high. The assessment attributes the decline to lower negotiated rates with some partners, a reorientation of U.S. imports and the Supreme Court decision invalidating general tariffs imposed under emergency economic powers. The average levy had risen from a little more than 2% at the start of 2025 to roughly 7% in April and then approached 11% in October. [1]

For Canadian exporters, the report’s central implication is that the apparent de-escalation in the U.S.-wide tariff average does not amount to a return to the earlier trading environment. The Supreme Court’s February 20 ruling removed tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, and the temporary 10% levy adopted under Section 122 subsequently expired. But tariffs introduced under Section 301 and product-specific Section 232 measures have replaced much of that broad-based framework with more targeted instruments. [1]

Canada and Mexico are now subject to a 10% general Section 301 surcharge under the regime described by CaixaBank, which applies across 60 economies. Goods that meet United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement rules of origin are exempt, as are products already covered by Section 232 measures. The report also says certain raw materials and critical inputs, including critical minerals and fertilisers where tariffs could create supply constraints, remain outside the new charges. That combination leaves compliance with CUSMA/USMCA origin rules as a key determinant of exposure for Canadian cross-border supply chains. [1]

The analysis estimates that the tariff structure implied by announced policies would produce an average U.S. tariff near 11%, only one percentage point above the estimate under the now-expired Section 122 tariff. Canada and Mexico nevertheless remain among the U.S. partners facing the lowest tariff burdens because of agreement-based exemptions. This means aggregate tariff relief can coexist with substantial exposure for particular Canadian products that do not qualify for preferential treatment or that fall under sectoral actions. [1]

CaixaBank also identifies continuing escalation channels beyond the general tariff architecture. It cites additional 50% levies in force since August on a broad range of Canadian products and a threat to extend those measures to vehicles and components in 2027. The research characterizes the new arrangement as legally more specific and procedural, but says it remains open to further legal challenges and continued use of tariffs for commercial pressure, geopolitical objectives and industrial policy. [1]