Agriculture
StormCrops, livestock, dairy, and processed food products. Canada's supply-managed sectors (dairy, poultry) are a specific point of contention.
Dairy is a direct target of the 50% Section 338A rarely used U.S. authority aimed at discriminatory treatment of American commerce.Glossary → tariff (Aug 2026), justified by the U.S. as a response to Canada's supply management quotas. Field crops face the 10% global tariff. Canadian food prices are up 4–6% year-over-year. The federal government has expanded AgriStability and created new support programs.
In Force
Measures currently active since the 2025 escalation.
Section 338 — 50% duties on selected Canadian products
In ForceJuly 20 proclamations originally set August 19 commencement, paused until August 22. September 8 proclamations changed coverage from September 15 and banned selected imports from September 29. Cement and rock salt were removed from tariff coverage. Pre-ban imports can have different warehouse treatment.
Section 301A U.S. process for responding to foreign practices considered unfair or harmful to American commerce.Glossary → Tariff — Forced Labor Enforcement (10%)
In ForceFinal action announced July 23, effective July 24, 2026; Canada's listed rate is 10%. Earlier investigation or proposal dates are not the final-action date. Applicable other duties may remain, but the expired Section 122 surcharge must not be stacked into current totals.
Section 338 import ban on selected Canadian alcoholic beverages
In ForceSigned September 8; import exclusion began September 29. This replaces tariff treatment for the prohibited subset, not the entire Section 338 tariff package.
Section 338 import ban on selected Canadian dairy and sweetener products
In ForceSigned September 8; import exclusion began September 29. This replaces tariff treatment for the prohibited subset, not the entire Section 338 tariff package.
Forecast
Threatened, announced, or scheduled — not yet in force.
CUSMA/USMCA Joint Review — U.S. Declines to Extend
Under NegotiationUSTR's July 1 statement did not confirm renewal. Review negotiations are not an effective date for withdrawing current preferential treatment. No new enactment or termination date is established by this statement.
Canadian Response
Actions Canada has taken or is pursuing.
Retaliatory Tariffs on $27.6B of U.S. Goods (September 2026)
Canada's September 8, 2026 countermeasures apply product-specific 15%, 25% and 50% rates to the published U.S. goods list, with announced trade coverage of C$27.6 billion.
Agriculture trade-disruption support — multiple programs
Canada's agriculture trade-response support includes FCC's trade-disruption lending and exporter programs. The enhanced 90% AgriStability compensation and C$6 million cap applied to the 2025 program year.
Latest News
Rising U.S. import and export prices, led by fuel, signal broader cross-border cost pressure for Canadian-linked supply chains.
Canada’s India trade mission secured 34 commercial agreements and kept CEPA talks moving, widening potential market-access opportunities beyond the United States.
Broad gains in metals and chemicals lifted August manufacturing sales, while weaker transportation equipment and pending tariff effects cloud the next data release.
A renewed five-year fisheries fund will finance export readiness, technology and sustainability projects across Atlantic Canada’s seafood value chain.
Construction is underway on a new Glace Bay wharf and harbour systems, supporting safer operations for the local commercial fishery through 2027.
Canada’s agriculture minister will promote exporters in Europe, reinforcing engagement in a major market without announcing new market-access measures.
New Ontario funding targets export expansion and production capacity, giving more than 130 agri-food businesses support to broaden sales channels.
Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September, lifting unemployment to 6.5 per cent and adding caution for employers and monetary policymakers.
Federal funding will support eight Saskatchewan projects, helping manufacturers expand capacity, upgrade operations and pursue markets amid tariff-related disruption.
Ottawa’s proposed omnibus bill would simplify agricultural and border-related rules, but businesses will not see changes unless Parliament adopts the amendments.
Retail and supply-chain experts expect the latest tariff escalation to lift Canadian prices and complicate sourcing, while broad product availability largely holds.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said new reciprocal-trade deals broaden market-access commitments while technical discussions with Canada continue without resolution.
A newly specified negotiating window and October trade-mission dates give Canadian exporters concrete milestones as the proposed India pact advances.
A lapse in U.S. CRP authority halts new and renewed conservation contracts, leaving prospective participants without enrollment certainty for 2027 planning.
New U.S. bans now block selected Canadian imports, exposing nearly US$1 billion in trade while support expands for affected Ontario businesses.
Deloitte lowered its 2027 Canadian growth outlook to 1.6 per cent, signalling a weaker near-term environment for households and businesses.
BRP expects its Can-Am import disruption to emerge next year, while the new U.S. ban adds pressure on selected Canadian consumer-product exporters.
Specified Canadian alcohol, dairy-linked products and large-engine motorcycles now face U.S. import exclusion, cutting off entry rather than raising landed costs.
A U.S. import ban now blocks selected Canadian alcohol shipments, interrupting smaller producers’ market access and planned American expansion.
Trump set a three-to-four-week expectation for renewed Canadian outreach, but negotiations remain frozen as new import restrictions approach.
A new state-level analysis highlights concentrated Canada trade exposure in battleground states, sharpening the business stakes of continuing tariffs and retaliation.
SFR Distillery has shelved a planned U.S. push and will seek European buyers, redirecting its export strategy ahead of the import ban.
Record U.S. whey concentrate prices and new cross-border restrictions are raising cost and supply risks for protein-product makers.
Canadian protein-food producers are financing larger whey inventories and considering costly reformulations, raising the risk of higher consumer prices and supply constraints.
Washington’s stated willingness to sustain the standoff reduces near-term prospects for relief as further trade restrictions approach.
New polling and analyst assessments suggest the Canada trade conflict is sharpening affordability concerns in closely contested U.S. Senate states.
Jasper Hill Farm says lost Canadian cheese sales and higher domestic costs show how tariffs are straining a cross-border specialty-food exporter.
Canadian wellness businesses report rising sourcing, pricing and market-access risks as tariffs squeeze cross-border whey and specialized food trade.
A global whey-protein supply crunch and new dairy tariffs are raising Canadian retailers’ input costs while farms shift production toward higher-protein milk.
Canada and Vietnam elevated bilateral relations, opening a broader framework for energy, agricultural, investment and innovation cooperation.
A September 23 legal assessment says rapidly changing U.S. trade and sanctions measures are raising compliance demands and uncertainty for companies operating across borders.
Canada-to-U.S. loaded rail-container traffic quickly recovered after a September ban-related drop, limiting the immediate disruption to broader freight flows.
The United States assigned the remaining FY 2027 raw sugar quota volume, clarifying eligible import access ahead of the October entry date.
FCC reports flat real sales despite nominal growth, with uneven food and beverage performance and trade barriers complicating the margin outlook.
Canadian wineries report stronger domestic demand, but looming U.S. restrictions threaten Ontario-led exports and icewine sales.
Unused farm quotas, regulatory gaps and infrastructure constraints could limit how quickly Canadian firms turn stronger EU trade into broader diversification.
Delayed Prairie harvests and sharply higher diesel and fertilizer costs are increasing cash-flow pressure for farmers despite stronger expected 2026 revenues.
New estimates put Canadian agri-food exposure at up to $2.8 billion annually, with counter-tariffs potentially adding to grocery inflation next year.
Montana grain producers say Canadian retaliatory tariffs are raising equipment costs and reinforcing efforts to cut input dependence.
A research assessment finds U.S. tariff incidence has eased, while Canadian firms still face a more targeted and legally exposed trade regime.
A motorcycle dealer and vodka producer are holding prices where possible while redirecting sales efforts amid cross-border trade uncertainty.
New U.S. duties now cover 110 Canadian product lines, narrowing some firms’ routing options despite near-offsetting exemptions.
New analysis finds executive tariffs have lifted effective rates for U.S. free-trade partners, while CUSMA still cushions most Canadian and Mexican imports.
Stronger Canadian sales to China, driven primarily by energy, widened an alternative export channel while gains remained uneven across sectors.
Trump’s comments preserve the North American trade framework but offer no timetable or evidence that formal Canada-U.S. negotiations have restarted.
An agricultural trade economist warned the bilateral tariff dispute may persist, leaving farm exporters, input buyers and consumers exposed to uncertainty.
Tighter U.S. border enforcement is adding paperwork, compliance costs and potential delays for Canada-U.S. freight movements.
Ottawa is reviewing new U.S. trade restrictions and keeps a retaliatory response on the table, prolonging uncertainty for affected importers and exporters.
New Brunswick will restrict major U.S. public contracts while Ontario expands tariff-program eligibility, increasing pressure for firms to localize procurement and finance adjustments.
Ontario is expanding access to two business-support funds, giving tariff-exposed firms financing and trade-adjustment options as new U.S. restrictions begin.
Montreal shoppers and a specialty retailer are shifting toward Quebec cheese as tariff uncertainty weakens demand for American products and threatens export competitiveness.
Canadian counter-tariffs may intensify tariff pressures on manufacturers and other sectors by raising costs for U.S.-sourced inputs and complicating supply chains.
Washington’s new import bans and expanded 50% tariff list deepen immediate disruption for Canadian dairy and food exporters ahead of Sept. 29.
Federal surtaxes on more than $27 billion of U.S. imports are now active, with Saskatchewan adding a new online alcohol charge.
Alberta Pork urged hog producers to assess U.S.-origin input exposure as Canada’s retaliatory tariffs took effect, focusing on construction and feed-related needs.
Canada’s counter-tariffs on roughly 700 U.S. imports took effect as Bombardier shares fell following a U.S. market-access threat.
Canada’s counter-tariffs on U.S. goods take effect as a reported Bombardier sales threat adds uncertainty to cross-border trade relations.
Canada’s retaliatory tariffs took effect Tuesday, imposing duties of up to 50 per cent on specified U.S. imports.
Canada’s new retaliatory duties now raise costs for a wide range of U.S. exports, while Washington signals possible further action.
Canada has imposed retaliatory tariffs on nearly $20bn of US imports, escalating pressure on integrated North American supply chains.
Farm-sector representatives say the escalating tariff exchange threatens dairy sales, machinery affordability and production planning across the United States.
Montana producers face higher costs for Canadian machinery as pending counter-tariffs threaten trade with the state’s largest foreign market.
Canada reportedly adjusted planned September counter-tariffs, sparing U.S. seafood while shifting prospective import-cost exposure to copper wire and wood charcoal.
Lower energy and metals shipments cut Canada’s July goods surplus sharply, while record vehicle imports further reduced the bilateral U.S. trade cushion.
Deloitte projects that a CUSMA collapse would substantially weaken Canadian output and manufacturing, with trade diversification unable to fully offset the loss.
Michigan manufacturers are preparing for Canadian counter-tariffs scheduled to take effect September 8, with the Michigan Manufacturing Association warning that the state’s broad industrial supply chains could make it unusually exposed. WJR cited a Detroit News estimate that roughly US$1.5 billion in Michigan exports could be affected and identified automotive, cement and food-related activity as areas of concern.[1]
RBC, TD, and CIBC reported third-quarter profits above analyst estimates. RBC CEO Dave McKay said more than 80% of Canadian exports remain duty-free and the average effective tariff rate is approximately 6%. TD said it holds about C$500 million in reserves for policy and trade risks.
Oxford Economics estimates the latest U.S. tariff escalation and Canadian counter-tariffs could leave Canada's real GDP 0.3 percentage points below its August baseline in 2027 and lift consumer prices by 0.3 percentage points. The forecast is an estimate, not an observed result.
Canada's real GDP grew 0.8% in the second quarter of 2026, equivalent to a 3.3% annualized rate and the strongest quarterly expansion since 2023. Final domestic demand rose 1.0%, June GDP increased 0.3%, and Statistics Canada's preliminary estimate indicated little change in July.
After trade talks collapsed and U.S. Section 338 tariffs took effect, Ottawa announced 15–50% counter-tariffs on approximately 874 U.S. products, effective September 8, 2026. Targets include steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, and electronics.
Alongside its counter-tariff announcement, the Carney government indicated it would lift select tariffs on U.S. agricultural products, consumer goods, and machinery effective September 1, as a negotiating gesture. Carney noted approximately 85% of bilateral trade is already tariff-free. The selective easing is separate from the broader September 8 counter-tariff package, which remains on track.
50% Section 338 tariffs on Canadian dairy, alcohol, and motor vehicles took effect after a brief 3-day pause. First use of Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930. Trade talks between Carney and Trump officials collapsed, ending the pause.
USTR imposed a 10% tariff on Canadian goods under Section 301, citing failure to enforce forced labor import prohibitions. Not Canada-specific — 60 countries affected. USMCA-compliant goods are exempt.
Canada's Food Price Report projects 4–6% food price increases in 2026, with an average family of four spending up to $994 more annually. Tariffs and counter-tariffs are a significant driver. Tomato prices surged 45% YoY. Beef, chicken, and vegetables lead increases.
At the mandatory six-year joint review, the U.S. declined to confirm a 16-year extension of CUSMA/USMCA. The agreement remains in force but faces annual reviews until 2036. Canada has not begun substantive text-based negotiations with the U.S.
The Supreme Court held that IEEPAA U.S. emergency-powers law that can be used to restrict certain international economic transactions.Glossary → does not authorize the President to impose tariffs, invalidating the legal basis for the 25–35% broad tariffs on Canadian goods that had been in force since February 2025. CBP stopped collecting IEEPA tariffs on February 24. Importers became eligible for refunds.
Consumer Impact
Related product categories and price pressure.