Quebec barometer puts tariff-linked output risk at up to $6.6 billion
A new Quebec assessment estimates combined tariff measures could endanger billions in output and up to 23,000 jobs across exposed export industries.
Quebec’s 2026 Prospera Barometer has put a provincial estimate on the potential economic exposure from existing U.S. tariffs and Canadian counter-tariffs. The report models a net output reduction of $5.3 billion to $6.6 billion in the most exposed sectors, with 17,000 to about 23,000 jobs potentially at risk once direct, indirect and induced effects are included. These are scenario-based estimates rather than reported losses. [1]
The findings arrive alongside a comparatively strong structural backdrop. The barometer recorded Quebec’s prosperity index at 134.2 in 2024, on a 1980 base of 100, compared with 129.0 for Canada and 126.8 for Ontario. It said Quebec had led those comparators since 1991, supported by investment, research and development, energy efficiency and human-capital gains. The September 28 release is the first edition of the report to quantify tariff vulnerability across key Quebec export industries. [1]
The exposure is material because the 10 subsectors assessed are heavily connected to the U.S. market. Between August 2025 and July 2026, they generated roughly $120.6 billion in worldwide exports, including about $55.3 billion destined for the United States. Together, those subsectors accounted for 68% of Quebec’s merchandise exports to the U.S., according to the barometer. [1]
Its modelling combines U.S. tariff measures already in place with Canada’s counter-tariffs that took effect September 8, 2026. The source says those countermeasures apply rates of 15%, 25% and 50% to about $27.6 billion in U.S. imports. In an initial, broad-product exposure view, electrical equipment and paper were identified as the most affected areas. When tariffs on steel, aluminum and certain derivative goods were added, risk shifted more decisively toward metals. [1]
Fabricated metal product manufacturing showed the largest combined exposure in the second snapshot, while primary metal manufacturing joined electrical equipment among the most vulnerable industries. The report’s implication for firms is not that the modelled losses are inevitable, but that continued trade friction could constrain investment and innovation and slow—or reverse—Quebec’s prosperity trend. It identifies reduced dependence on the U.S. market, alongside continued productivity and investment efforts, as important to the longer-term outlook. [1]
The barometer also places tariff risk within broader provincial constraints, including high imports, elevated household debt and a shrinking working-age population. A separate succession challenge could compound those pressures: the report cites an estimated 38,000 Quebec businesses expected to change hands within three years. The new tariff analysis therefore provides an exposure benchmark for Quebec manufacturers and their supply chains rather than a measure of realized provincial economic damage. [1]
This is a meaningful new economic-data development because the barometer newly estimates the scale of potential combined tariff and counter-tariff exposure in Quebec’s export-linked sectors, including up to $6.6 billion in output and about 23,000 jobs at risk. Metal manufacturing appears particularly exposed, but the figures are modelled scenarios from one report rather than observed losses or evidence of a new tariff action, limiting the significance rating. [1]