Dashboard / Forestry
Industry Report — data through Oct 17, 2026

Forestry

Elevated

Softwood lumber, pulp and paper, and wood products. The softwood lumber dispute predates the current trade war by decades.

Impact
4/5
Significant active measures
Escalation risk
3/5
Some pending uncertainty
Adaptability
3/5
Alternatives exist but costly
Price risk
4/5
Costs flowing to consumers

Softwood lumber faces a triple stack: the 2025 administrative review raised CVD/AD duties from ~14.54% to 35.16%, a 10% Section 232 timber tariff was added in October 2025, and the 10% global tariff applies to non- goods. Combined effective burden for most producers exceeds 45%. A preliminary April 2026 review proposed reduction to ~24.83%, pending final determination. Canada has multiple WTO and CUSMA legal challenges active.

Baseline

Measures that existed before the 2025 trade escalation.

Softwood lumber — 2024 historical baseline

Baseline
Rate 14.40% combined for reviewed non-selected producers (CVD 6.74% + AD 7.66%)
Products Softwood lumber
Effective Aug 19, 2024
Exemptions Producer-specific rates apply; the combined reference rate is not universal.
CUSMA Not covered by CUSMA — subject to separate bilateral dispute

Historical 2024 reference, superseded by the 2025 reviews. September 24 amended results corrected the earlier 14.54% reference retroactively to August 19, 2024; these are not the original 2017 duty dates.

In Force

Measures currently active since the 2025 escalation.

Softwood Lumber CVD/AD — 2025 Rate Increase to 35.16%

In Force
Rate 35.16% combined for reviewed non-selected producers (CVD 14.63% + AD 20.53%)
Baseline 14.40% combined (amended 2024 review)
Products Softwood lumber
Effective Aug 12, 2025
Exemptions Producer-specific rates: Canfor 47.59%, West Fraser 26.47%; 35.16% is the reviewed non-selected-company reference.
CUSMA Not covered by CUSMA — subject to separate bilateral dispute

September 11 amended AD results apply retroactively to July 29; the combined reference uses the CVD rate published August 12. BC's summary describes September 11 as effective. AR7's June 2026 post-preliminary reference was 25.18%, not a final enacted rate. No later final result was verified in this audit.

tariffs on timber, lumber, wooden furniture and cabinets

In Force
Rate 10% timber/lumber; 25% covered upholstered wooden furniture, kitchen cabinets and vanities
Baseline 0%
Products Softwood timber and lumber; covered upholstered wooden furniture; kitchen cabinets and vanities
Effective Oct 14, 2025
Exemptions Scope and applicable exceptions are defined by the proclamation's annexes; partner-specific agreements do not establish a blanket Canadian exemption.
CUSMA CUSMA does not override Section 232

Current duties began October 14, 2025. The furniture/cabinet increases were postponed from January 1, 2026 to January 1, 2027 by the December 31 amendment and are tracked separately as scheduled. Softwood CVD/AD duties are a distinct layer.

Tariff — Forced Labor Enforcement (10%)

In Force
Rate 10%
Baseline 0%
Products All Canadian goods not entered under USMCA preference
Effective Jul 24, 2026
Exemptions CUSMA-qualifying Canadian goods, specified energy/raw materials and goods subject to Section 232 are excluded under the final action.
CUSMA USMCA-compliant goods exempt

Final action announced July 23, effective July 24, 2026; Canada's listed rate is 10%. Earlier investigation or proposal dates are not the final-action date. Applicable other duties may remain, but the expired Section 122 surcharge must not be stacked into current totals.

Forecast

Threatened, announced, or scheduled — not yet in force.

CUSMA/USMCA Joint Review — U.S. Declines to Extend

Under Negotiation
Products All goods covered by CUSMA/USMCA
CUSMA CUSMA remains in force; the United States did not confirm an extension at the July 2026 review.

USTR's July 1 statement did not confirm renewal. Review negotiations are not an effective date for withdrawing current preferential treatment. No new enactment or termination date is established by this statement.

Scheduled Section 232 increases on wooden furniture and cabinets — January 1, 2027

Scheduled
Rate 30% upholstered wooden furniture; 50% kitchen cabinets and vanities
Baseline 25%
Products Covered upholstered wooden furniture; kitchen cabinets and vanities
Effective Jan 1, 2027
Exemptions Product scope and applicable agreement exceptions remain defined by the underlying proclamation.
CUSMA No blanket CUSMA exemption under this proclamation.

The December 31 amendment postponed the original January 2026 increase to January 2027. This future rate change is separate from the current timber/furniture/cabinet duties.

Canadian Response

Actions Canada has taken or is pursuing.

Canadian Response

CUSMA challenges to the 2025 softwood lumber duty reviews

Legal

Canada filed CUSMA challenges to the sixth administrative review's softwood lumber duty results on August 28 and September 11, 2025.

Announced Aug 28, 2025
Status In Force
Responds to Softwood Lumber CVD/AD — 2025 Rate Increase to 35.16%

Latest News

Oct 15, 2026 · CTV News
Latest U.S. lumber review leaves Canadian softwood exports facing nearly 35% in combined import taxes

A revised U.S. duty stack lowers the combined charge on Canadian softwood lumber but keeps a substantial cost burden on producers and cross-border housing supply.

Oct 14, 2026 · Financial Post
Ford urges Canada to plan for a lasting era of U.S. tariffs

Ontario’s premier called for long-term planning around persistent U.S. protectionism, reinforcing uncertainty for Canadian firms reliant on cross-border market access.

Oct 7, 2026 · cbc.ca
Latest Canada-U.S. escalation seen pushing up prices and narrowing consumer choice

Retail and supply-chain experts expect the latest tariff escalation to lift Canadian prices and complicate sourcing, while broad product availability largely holds.

Sep 28, 2026 · New York Post
Analysis maps $188B Canada trade exposure across competitive U.S. Senate states

A new state-level analysis highlights concentrated Canada trade exposure in battleground states, sharpening the business stakes of continuing tariffs and retaliation.

Sep 28, 2026 · wealthprofessional.ca
Quebec barometer puts tariff-linked output risk at up to $6.6 billion

A new Quebec assessment estimates combined tariff measures could endanger billions in output and up to 23,000 jobs across exposed export industries.

Sep 24, 2026 · gibsondunn.com
Legal Alert Flags Rising Compliance Burden From Rapid U.S. Economic Measures

A September 23 legal assessment says rapidly changing U.S. trade and sanctions measures are raising compliance demands and uncertainty for companies operating across borders.

Sep 15, 2026 · CBC
U.S. 50% tariffs take effect on 110 Canadian products as selected exemptions begin

New U.S. duties now cover 110 Canadian product lines, narrowing some firms’ routing options despite near-offsetting exemptions.

Sep 14, 2026 · atlanticcouncil.org
Atlantic Council analysis finds U.S. tariffs are eroding practical FTA benefits

New analysis finds executive tariffs have lifted effective rates for U.S. free-trade partners, while CUSMA still cushions most Canadian and Mexican imports.

Sep 14, 2026 · CBC
Canada’s First-Half Exports to China Rise 30%, Led by Energy and Minerals

Stronger Canadian sales to China, driven primarily by energy, widened an alternative export channel while gains remained uneven across sectors.

Sep 11, 2026 · BNN Bloomberg
Cross-Border Shippers Report Steeper U.S. Customs Scrutiny and Penalties

Tighter U.S. border enforcement is adding paperwork, compliance costs and potential delays for Canada-U.S. freight movements.

Sep 10, 2026 · CityNews Toronto
Ontario widens tariff-support eligibility as new U.S. measures approach

Ontario is expanding access to two business-support funds, giving tariff-exposed firms financing and trade-adjustment options as new U.S. restrictions begin.

Sep 9, 2026 · Canada's National Observer
Eby backs Ottawa counter-tariffs as B.C. warns trade dispute will deepen losses

British Columbia Premier David Eby backed federal counter-tariffs, cited forestry pressure and warned the Canada-U.S. trade dispute may not be resolved quickly.

Sep 9, 2026 · straitstimes.comIndustry rating changed
U.S. Sets Sept. 29 Import Bans on Canadian Alcohol, Motorcycles and Dairy

Washington’s new import bans and expanded 50% tariff list deepen immediate disruption for Canadian dairy and food exporters ahead of Sept. 29.

Sep 8, 2026 · BNN Bloomberg
Bombardier shares slide as Canada’s retaliatory tariffs take effect

Canada’s counter-tariffs on roughly 700 U.S. imports took effect as Bombardier shares fell following a U.S. market-access threat.

Sep 8, 2026 · BNN Bloomberg
Canada’s retaliatory tariff schedule targets U.S. dairy, wood, metals and consumer goods

Canada’s retaliatory tariffs took effect Tuesday, imposing duties of up to 50 per cent on specified U.S. imports.

Sep 4, 2026 · ctvnews.ca
Ontario Chair Maker Weighs U.S. Production Shift as 50% Duty Hits Exports

A Kemptville furniture exporter is weighing a U.S. manufacturing move as tariff costs threaten margins and sales in its main market.

Sep 3, 2026 · disruptionbanking.com
Report Says Canada Replaced Proposed U.S. Seafood Tariff With Duties on Copper Wire and Wood Charcoal

Canada reportedly adjusted planned September counter-tariffs, sparing U.S. seafood while shifting prospective import-cost exposure to copper wire and wood charcoal.

Sep 3, 2026 · NanaimoNewsNOW
Eco Guardian Begins Ontario Paper Cup and Bowl Production as Foodservice Buyers Seek Domestic Supply

Eco Guardian Inc. has begun making compostable and recyclable paper cups and bowls at its Aurora, Ontario facility, as Canadian foodservice customers show growing interest in domestically made takeaway packaging amid tariff-related uncertainty.[1][2] The company says it replaced a planned U.S. paperboard supply arrangement with sourcing from Asia and Europe, leaving its Canadian production without U.S.-origin inputs that it says could be exposed to Canadian retaliatory tariffs.[2]

Sep 2, 2026 · The Maine Wire
Sen. Susan Collins Cites $170 Million in Maine Exposure as She Urges Resumption of Canada Trade Talks

U.S. Senator Susan Collins urged the Commerce Department and USTR to resume negotiations with Canada, arguing that U.S. tariffs and Canada’s planned retaliation would raise costs and uncertainty for Maine businesses and communities. Her letter estimated that approximately US$170 million of Maine goods could face the announced Canadian tariffs, with forest products representing about 62% of that exposure.[1]

Sep 1, 2026 · Tissue Online North America
Paper and Tissue Importers Face 25–50% Tariffs on U.S. Goods

Canadian counter-tariffs scheduled for September 8 include 25% duties on U.S. toilet paper and several tissue products, while some facial-tissue stock and school or office paper products face 50%. Canadian importers now have to assess landed costs and alternative suppliers across an integrated North American paper market.

Aug 29, 2026 · Globe and Mail / CBC News
Canadian Banks Beat Q3 Estimates; RBC Cites Limited Tariff Exposure

RBC, TD, and CIBC reported third-quarter profits above analyst estimates. RBC CEO Dave McKay said more than 80% of Canadian exports remain duty-free and the average effective tariff rate is approximately 6%. TD said it holds about C$500 million in reserves for policy and trade risks.

Aug 28, 2026 · Oxford Economics
Oxford Economics: Latest Tariff Escalation Could Cut Canada's 2027 GDP by 0.3 Points

Oxford Economics estimates the latest U.S. tariff escalation and Canadian counter-tariffs could leave Canada's real GDP 0.3 percentage points below its August baseline in 2027 and lift consumer prices by 0.3 percentage points. The forecast is an estimate, not an observed result.

Aug 28, 2026 · Statistics Canada
Canada's Q2 GDP Grew 3.3% Annualized — Strongest Since 2023 — As Trade War Escalated

Canada's real GDP grew 0.8% in the second quarter of 2026, equivalent to a 3.3% annualized rate and the strongest quarterly expansion since 2023. Final domestic demand rose 1.0%, June GDP increased 0.3%, and Statistics Canada's preliminary estimate indicated little change in July.

Jul 24, 2026 · PwC CanadaIndustry rating changed
Section 301 Tariff Hits Canada and 59 Other Countries Over Forced Labor

USTR imposed a 10% tariff on Canadian goods under Section 301, citing failure to enforce forced labor import prohibitions. Not Canada-specific — 60 countries affected. USMCA-compliant goods are exempt.

Jul 1, 2026 · White & Case / USTRIndustry rating changed
U.S. Declines to Extend CUSMA, Triggering Annual Review Process

At the mandatory six-year joint review, the U.S. declined to confirm a 16-year extension of CUSMA/USMCA. The agreement remains in force but faces annual reviews until 2036. Canada has not begun substantive text-based negotiations with the U.S.

Feb 1, 2026 · Multiple / Wikipedia timelineIndustry rating changed
U.S. Supreme Court Rules IEEPA Cannot Be Used to Impose Tariffs

The Supreme Court held that does not authorize the President to impose tariffs, invalidating the legal basis for the 25–35% broad tariffs on Canadian goods that had been in force since February 2025. CBP stopped collecting IEEPA tariffs on February 24. Importers became eligible for refunds.

Sep 11, 2025 · Global Affairs Canada
Canada Launches CUSMA Chapter 10 Challenges on Softwood Lumber

Canada filed CUSMA Chapter 10 challenges against U.S. anti-dumping (Aug 28) and countervailing (Sept 11) duties on softwood lumber. Multiple legal venues being pursued simultaneously including WTO, Chapter 19, and U.S. Court of International Trade.

Aug 15, 2025 · U.S. Commerce Department / Wood CentralIndustry rating changed
Softwood Lumber Combined Duty Rate Rises to 35.16% After Administrative Review

The 2025 administrative review sharply increased combined CVD/AD duties on Canadian softwood lumber from 8.05% to 35.16% for most producers. Canfor faces 47.59%. These rates stack on top of the separate 10% Section 232 timber tariff.

Consumer Impact

Related product categories and price pressure.

Lumber & Building Materials
Trend ↑ rising
YoY +14%
Exposure high
Future increasing