Forestry
ElevatedSoftwood lumber, pulp and paper, and wood products. The softwood lumber dispute predates the current trade war by decades.
Softwood lumber faces a triple stack: the 2025 administrative review raised CVD/AD duties from ~14.54% to 35.16%, a 10% Section 232 timber tariff was added in October 2025, and the 10% global tariff applies to non-CUSMA / USMCAThe North American trade agreement. CUSMA is the Canadian name; USMCA is the American name.Glossary → goods. Combined effective burden for most producers exceeds 45%. A preliminary April 2026 review proposed reduction to ~24.83%, pending final determination. Canada has multiple WTO and CUSMA legal challenges active.
Baseline
Measures that existed before the 2025 trade escalation.
Softwood lumber Anti-dumping / countervailing dutiesExtra duties used to address goods sold below fair value or supported by certain foreign subsidies.Glossary → — 2024 historical baseline
BaselineHistorical 2024 reference, superseded by the 2025 reviews. September 24 amended results corrected the earlier 14.54% reference retroactively to August 19, 2024; these are not the original 2017 duty dates.
In Force
Measures currently active since the 2025 escalation.
Softwood Lumber CVD/AD — 2025 Rate Increase to 35.16%
In ForceSeptember 11 amended AD results apply retroactively to July 29; the combined reference uses the CVD rate published August 12. BC's summary describes September 11 as effective. AR7's June 2026 post-preliminary reference was 25.18%, not a final enacted rate. No later final result was verified in this audit.
Section 232A U.S. trade authority that can restrict imports on national-security grounds.Glossary → tariffs on timber, lumber, wooden furniture and cabinets
In ForceCurrent duties began October 14, 2025. The furniture/cabinet increases were postponed from January 1, 2026 to January 1, 2027 by the December 31 amendment and are tracked separately as scheduled. Softwood CVD/AD duties are a distinct layer.
Section 301A U.S. process for responding to foreign practices considered unfair or harmful to American commerce.Glossary → Tariff — Forced Labor Enforcement (10%)
In ForceFinal action announced July 23, effective July 24, 2026; Canada's listed rate is 10%. Earlier investigation or proposal dates are not the final-action date. Applicable other duties may remain, but the expired Section 122 surcharge must not be stacked into current totals.
Forecast
Threatened, announced, or scheduled — not yet in force.
CUSMA/USMCA Joint Review — U.S. Declines to Extend
Under NegotiationUSTR's July 1 statement did not confirm renewal. Review negotiations are not an effective date for withdrawing current preferential treatment. No new enactment or termination date is established by this statement.
Scheduled Section 232 increases on wooden furniture and cabinets — January 1, 2027
ScheduledThe December 31 amendment postponed the original January 2026 increase to January 2027. This future rate change is separate from the current timber/furniture/cabinet duties.
Canadian Response
Actions Canada has taken or is pursuing.
CUSMA challenges to the 2025 softwood lumber duty reviews
Canada filed CUSMA challenges to the sixth administrative review's softwood lumber duty results on August 28 and September 11, 2025.
Latest News
A revised U.S. duty stack lowers the combined charge on Canadian softwood lumber but keeps a substantial cost burden on producers and cross-border housing supply.
Ontario’s premier called for long-term planning around persistent U.S. protectionism, reinforcing uncertainty for Canadian firms reliant on cross-border market access.
Retail and supply-chain experts expect the latest tariff escalation to lift Canadian prices and complicate sourcing, while broad product availability largely holds.
A new state-level analysis highlights concentrated Canada trade exposure in battleground states, sharpening the business stakes of continuing tariffs and retaliation.
A new Quebec assessment estimates combined tariff measures could endanger billions in output and up to 23,000 jobs across exposed export industries.
A September 23 legal assessment says rapidly changing U.S. trade and sanctions measures are raising compliance demands and uncertainty for companies operating across borders.
New U.S. duties now cover 110 Canadian product lines, narrowing some firms’ routing options despite near-offsetting exemptions.
New analysis finds executive tariffs have lifted effective rates for U.S. free-trade partners, while CUSMA still cushions most Canadian and Mexican imports.
Stronger Canadian sales to China, driven primarily by energy, widened an alternative export channel while gains remained uneven across sectors.
Tighter U.S. border enforcement is adding paperwork, compliance costs and potential delays for Canada-U.S. freight movements.
Ontario is expanding access to two business-support funds, giving tariff-exposed firms financing and trade-adjustment options as new U.S. restrictions begin.
British Columbia Premier David Eby backed federal counter-tariffs, cited forestry pressure and warned the Canada-U.S. trade dispute may not be resolved quickly.
Washington’s new import bans and expanded 50% tariff list deepen immediate disruption for Canadian dairy and food exporters ahead of Sept. 29.
Canada’s counter-tariffs on roughly 700 U.S. imports took effect as Bombardier shares fell following a U.S. market-access threat.
Canada’s retaliatory tariffs took effect Tuesday, imposing duties of up to 50 per cent on specified U.S. imports.
A Kemptville furniture exporter is weighing a U.S. manufacturing move as tariff costs threaten margins and sales in its main market.
Canada reportedly adjusted planned September counter-tariffs, sparing U.S. seafood while shifting prospective import-cost exposure to copper wire and wood charcoal.
Eco Guardian Inc. has begun making compostable and recyclable paper cups and bowls at its Aurora, Ontario facility, as Canadian foodservice customers show growing interest in domestically made takeaway packaging amid tariff-related uncertainty.[1][2] The company says it replaced a planned U.S. paperboard supply arrangement with sourcing from Asia and Europe, leaving its Canadian production without U.S.-origin inputs that it says could be exposed to Canadian retaliatory tariffs.[2]
U.S. Senator Susan Collins urged the Commerce Department and USTR to resume negotiations with Canada, arguing that U.S. tariffs and Canada’s planned retaliation would raise costs and uncertainty for Maine businesses and communities. Her letter estimated that approximately US$170 million of Maine goods could face the announced Canadian tariffs, with forest products representing about 62% of that exposure.[1]
Canadian counter-tariffs scheduled for September 8 include 25% duties on U.S. toilet paper and several tissue products, while some facial-tissue stock and school or office paper products face 50%. Canadian importers now have to assess landed costs and alternative suppliers across an integrated North American paper market.
RBC, TD, and CIBC reported third-quarter profits above analyst estimates. RBC CEO Dave McKay said more than 80% of Canadian exports remain duty-free and the average effective tariff rate is approximately 6%. TD said it holds about C$500 million in reserves for policy and trade risks.
Oxford Economics estimates the latest U.S. tariff escalation and Canadian counter-tariffs could leave Canada's real GDP 0.3 percentage points below its August baseline in 2027 and lift consumer prices by 0.3 percentage points. The forecast is an estimate, not an observed result.
Canada's real GDP grew 0.8% in the second quarter of 2026, equivalent to a 3.3% annualized rate and the strongest quarterly expansion since 2023. Final domestic demand rose 1.0%, June GDP increased 0.3%, and Statistics Canada's preliminary estimate indicated little change in July.
USTR imposed a 10% tariff on Canadian goods under Section 301, citing failure to enforce forced labor import prohibitions. Not Canada-specific — 60 countries affected. USMCA-compliant goods are exempt.
At the mandatory six-year joint review, the U.S. declined to confirm a 16-year extension of CUSMA/USMCA. The agreement remains in force but faces annual reviews until 2036. Canada has not begun substantive text-based negotiations with the U.S.
The Supreme Court held that IEEPAA U.S. emergency-powers law that can be used to restrict certain international economic transactions.Glossary → does not authorize the President to impose tariffs, invalidating the legal basis for the 25–35% broad tariffs on Canadian goods that had been in force since February 2025. CBP stopped collecting IEEPA tariffs on February 24. Importers became eligible for refunds.
Canada filed CUSMA Chapter 10 challenges against U.S. anti-dumping (Aug 28) and countervailing (Sept 11) duties on softwood lumber. Multiple legal venues being pursued simultaneously including WTO, NAFTAThe North American Free Trade Agreement, in force from 1994 until CUSMA/USMCA replaced it in 2020.Glossary → Chapter 19, and U.S. Court of International Trade.
The 2025 administrative review sharply increased combined CVD/AD duties on Canadian softwood lumber from 8.05% to 35.16% for most producers. Canfor faces 47.59%. These rates stack on top of the separate 10% Section 232 timber tariff.
Consumer Impact
Related product categories and price pressure.